Third time lucky…?
Never before has Israel experienced political turbulence similar to that of 2019, and with a third election on Monday 2nd March, the political limbo is set to continue well into 2020 with no end date in sight. Next week’s election will be the third that has taken place in the space of a year – unprecedented in Israel’s history.
Legislative elections were held in Israel in April 2019 following a deadlock over legislation to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews into the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The results were inconclusive, and incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to form a governing coalition – the first such failure in Israeli history. A second election was held in September 2019, again producing inconclusive results
Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Benny Gantz respectively were handed the mandate by President Rivlin to attempt forming governments, needing to garner support from 61/120 Members of Knesset. With neither party leader able to hit the crucial 61 seats, President Rivlin invoked yet another first for Israel’s political history, passing the mandate over to the Knesset. During what can only be described as a bizarre 21-day period, all elected politicians were given the opportunity to seek approval from 61 MKs to form a government and present themselves to the President. Unsurprisingly, no one was successful.
As the winter darkness loomed, so did the prospect of returning to the polls. With no other legislative move to make, Israel’s 22nd Knesset entered the Plenum for what would be the first and last time to seek its own dissolution.
The election campaign so far…
Campaigning officially started in early December however due to a combination of public apathy and a shortage of campaign money electioneering has been severely restrained. On the ground in Israel you would hardly notice the nation was a week away from a General Election aside from a smattering of sporadic posters and text messages from political parties.
The election season’s key focus has been on Netanyahu’s indictment. Prior to elections being called the police recommended to the Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit that Netanyahu be indicted on three charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. The nation watched on in angst as Mandelblit pondered over when to announce his final decision. On the eve of 28th January, the Attorney General concluded that Netanyahu would be indicted on all three charges marking the first time in Israel’s history that a serving Prime Minister will face criminal charges. A case for parliamentary immunity had already been filed by Netanyahu, but just hours after Mandelblit’s announcement, Netanyahu pulled the request.
The Prime Minister will be facing the electorate as a defendant in three criminal cases. Legislation states that all Ministers and Members of Knesset with a pending indictment against them have to resign their positions, except for Prime Minister. The High Court can only intervene to compel Netanyahu to declare temporary incapacity which is looking increasingly unlikely as the trial is set to span over six years.
Benny Gantz has attacked Netanyahu, accusing him of working for himself, abusing his public position and being unable to juggle leading the country and three serious criminal court cases. Yamina (right-bloc), United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas have all come out in support of the Prime Minister stating that they will continue to recommend him to the President as the best candidate for the role. The rest of the parties have counteracted this by saying they will not sit in a coalition with an indicted Prime Minister. We’re yet to have clarity as to whether the official indictment will affect the electorate’s loyalty to the serving Prime Minister.
Just prior to the Knesset dissolution, Netanyahu agreed to run primaries for the Likud Party in order to restore his mandate and prove that he is the rightful leader of the party. Netanyahu was challenged by only Gideon Sa’ar; formerly Attorney General, Deputy Knesset Speaker and Minister of Education. Having taken a brief hiatus from politics, Saar was looking to make his return back into the party, however, was thwarted by Netanyahu winning a landslide victory of 72.5%.
The hustle and bustle of Israeli elections has been remarkably tame and restrained over the past few weeks, and Benny Gantz declined Prime Minister Netanyahu’s challenge to a series of televised debates.
Polling predictions
Israeli political parties can generally be divided into four camps; right-wing, left-wing, centrist and niche parties. There are 30 parties confirmed to be running on 2nd March 2020 comparatively with 31 in September and 39 in April. Several alliances have formed between parties who will run on the same ticket in hope of increased voter support and ensuring smaller parties pass the electoral threshold.
Last week saw voters abroad cast their vote for the upcoming general election. 5,000 Diplomats and Emissaries were eligible to vote, and the voter turnout was 66%, a considerable drop comparatively to September’s 69.5% and April’s 76%. National voter turnout dropped from 69.4% in April to 68.5% in September. With notable political apathy in the air, Israel is predicting a continued drop in national voter turnout this March.
Latest polling suggests Netanyahu’s principle challengers, Blue and White, are predicted to secure a win of 36 seats with Likud falling marginally behind on 33 seats. This election season’s polls have predominantly pinned Gantz’s Blue and White party as winning more seats than Netanyahu’s Likud. In the previous elections, Likud was generally polling ahead or neck-and-neck with Blue and White.
Following behind are the (Arab) Joint List securing 13 seats. The left block (Labor-Meretz-Gesher), the right block (Yamina) and Shas are predicted to each win 8 seats with Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu and United Torah Judaism to be trailing behind on 7. All other parties are not predicated to come close to passing the 3.25% electoral threshold including the far-right extremist party Otzma Yehudit who are running alone this election.
If Netanyahu was handed the mandate to form a government, based on recent polling he would be able to secure 56 seats; 33 Likud, 8 Yamina, 8 Shas, 7 UTJ. The only way to secure the crucial 61 would be to convince Lieberman to join, bringing with him 7 seats forming a majority right-wing government of 63 seats. In both previous elections Netanyahu has found himself in identical situations and Lieberman has been the potential kingmaker. On each occasion Lieberman has eventually concluded that he is unwilling to join the coalition sighting that he will not enter a coalition with the Ultra-Orthodox as his party are secular nationalists or that he will not sit in the coalition with a Prime Minister under indictment.
Should Gantz be handed the mandate by President Rivlin, based on recent polling he would be able to secure 44 seats; 36 Blue and White, 8 the left block. The only way for him to secure the crucial 61 seats would be to join with both the Arab Joint List and Lieberman which is an almost impossible feat. The Joint List led by Odeh have never once sat in the government but have previously hinted at a willingness to sit with Benny Gantz in order to oust Netanyahu.
In the unlikely event that this coalition materialised, Gantz would be at 57, 4 seats short of forming a majority government. Kingmaker Lieberman could throw out his party’s unwillingness to sit with the Joint List and join the coalition with the sole purpose of ousting Netanyahu which would form a majority coalition of 64 seats. With so many concessions to be made by a multitude of parties, this would be an incredibly unlikely situation to play out.
The most favoured outcome that garnered the greatest public support when floated post September 2019 elections, would be a unity government comprising of Blue and White and Likud with a majority of 69 seats. If this were to be negotiated Lieberman would be likely to join the coalition strengthening the majority to 76 seats.
When Gantz and Netanyahu came together following September’s election to discuss making this a viable solution they were unable to agree on terms. Gantz’s primary concern was not sitting with an indicted Prime Minister and Netanyahu’s major concern was remaining Prime Minister. Rotation deals were negotiated, direct Prime Ministerial elections were discussed, and a range of deals were presented yet an agreement was unable to be reached ultimately leading the nation to its third elections in 12 months.
Recent polling concluded that three-quarters of Israelis view fourth elections as a moderate to high chance which is an accurate reflection of the political apathy and dismay the nation are feeling. With the country preparing for political failure yet again, it’s no surprise that the Central Election Committee have already nominated Tuesday 8th September as the official date for Israel’s fourth elections.
Who are Israelis voting for?
Among the main parties running:
Likud – Headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud stands for national and economic liberalism and has been the traditional home of the mainstream right-wing since the 1970s when it was founded by Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon. Likud have merged with the economically focused Kulanu Party post the April 2019 election.
Polling at: 33 seats September 2019: 31 seats April 2019: 35 seats Kulanu 4
Blue and White – Former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz joined forces with Yair Lapid in February under a new centrist ticket named Blue & White. The centrist alliance has emerged as the principle challenger to Likud. Having previously decided on a rotation deal for Prime Minister should they win, Blue and White have dropped this policy in order to gain greater party support. Gantz will take the position of Prime Minister for a full 5-year term, should Blue and White succeed, and Lapid will serve as Foreign Minister.
Polling at: 36 seats September 2019: 33 seats April 2019: 35 seats
Yamina (The Right Bloc) – A bloc of pro-settler and far-right parties running on a joint ticket; Jewish Home, The New Right and The National Union. Ayelet Shaked, former Justice Minister and popular among the secular-right who has taken over the leadership of the bloc. Voters were disappointed that 2 hours following September 2019’s final results were announced, the parties decided to split from their bloc. They have vowed this will not happen again.
Polling at: 8 seats September 2019: 7 seats April 2019: United Right 5 New Right 0
Labor-Meretz-Gesher (The Left Bloc) – Having varied success in different pairings in previous elections, the left bloc have decided to run on a joint ticket led by Labor leader Amir Peretz. Labor support pragmatic foreign affairs policies, social democratic economic policies and a two-state solution. Meretz led by Nitzan Horowitz is seen as the leftist party emphasising social justice, human rights, religious freedom, environmentalism. Orly Levy-Abekasis’s Gesher Party is considerably smaller and less known primarily focusing on economic and cost-of-living issues and aiming to reduce inequality.
Polling at: 8 seats September 2019: Labor Gesher 6 Meretz 5 seats April 2019: Labour 6 Gesher 0 Meretz 4
Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our Home) – Led by former Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman, the right-wing secular nationalist party traditionally held a base for secular, Russian-speaking Israelis. Having been branded election seasons kingmaker, Lieberman’s unwillingness to sit with the Ultra-Orthodox, the Arabs or an indicted Prime Minister have labelled him the reason for Israel’s multitude of elections.
Polling at: 7 seats September 2019: 8 seats April 2019: 5 seats
The Joint (Arab) List – Four-strong Arab alliance comprising of: Ta’al (Arab Renewal), Hadash (Jewish/Arab Communist), Ra’am (Islamist) and Balad (Arab-Palestinian nationalists). The Joint List ran together in 2015 but dissolved into Ta’al-Hadash and Ra’am-Balad pairings for the April elections receiving six and four seats respectively. To prevent falling below the threshold, the parties have reformed The Joint List led by Ayman Odeh and have been soaring in recent elections due to higher Arab-Israeli turnout.
Polling at: 13 seats September 2019: 13 seats April 2019: 4/6seats
Shas – Led by Aryeh Deri, an ultra-Orthodox party which primarily represents the interests of ultra-Orthodox Sephardic Jews. Since its founding 1984, Shas has always formed part of the governing coalition regardless of who the ruling party is.
Polling at: 8 seats September 2019: 9 seats April 2019: 8 seats
United Torah Judaism – An alliance of Degel HaTorah and Agudat Israel, two small Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox parties. The two parties have not always agreed with each other about policy matters; however, they have cooperated in order to win the maximum number of seats since 1992.
Polling at: 7 seats September 2019: 8 seats April 2019: 8 seats
The voting system:
Israelis will be voting for a party, and not a Prime Minister, in an electoral system based on nation-wide proportional representation. This means that the number of seats which every list receives in the Knesset is proportional to the number of people who voted for it.
According to this system, the country votes for a party list, not for a particular person on the list. Some parties hold primary elections to determine their list, while other party lists are determined by the head of the party or other decision makers (such as Ultra-Orthodox rabbis). Party lists were finalised on Thursday 1st August with 32 parties registered for the upcoming election in comparison to the 41 parties registered for the April elections.
The electoral threshold is currently set at 3.25%, meaning that a party needs to win at least 3.25% of all votes (translating to four Knesset seats) in order to secure parliamentary representation. This threshold is the reason that some smaller parties may join up with other factions, in a bid to give themselves a better chance of passing the electoral threshold.
After the votes are counted work begins to assemble a coalition (which needs at least 61 of the 120 Members of Knesset in order to function). The leader of the coalition will then be recommended as Prime Minister.
The voting day, 2nd March, is a national holiday in Israel with most places of work closed for the day. Voter turnout is one of the highest in the world, with 68.5% of the voting population turning up to vote during the last elections in 2019.
