Early polls ahead of Israel’s fourth election within two years have shown a stable lead for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party with a projected 27 seats in the 120 Knesset legislature, although there remains no clear route to a governing coalition.
The polls reflect the current volatility of Israel’s political landscape as parties dramatically splinter, form and change political allegiances ahead of the 23 March poll and amidst a major third wave of Covid-19.
One of the major stories in the early stage of the election has been the collapse of Deputy Prime Minister/Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party – after receiving 33 seats in the last election (although it independently has 14 MKs following its earlier splintering from Yesh Atid and Telem when Gantz joined the coalition), it is predicted the party could receive as few as 5 mandates in the March election. Some polls suggest the party may even fail to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold and end up with zero representatives. The former IDF Chief of Staff has seen a major splintering of his party with many of his Knesset Members moving to other political factions, including Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn, and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi is leaving politics.
Gantz acknowledged his dire situation in a recent meeting with campaign activists, reportedly telling them: “I know it’s hard to be proud when saying you’re with Benny Gantz, but regardless I choose to stay on this path”.
Gideon Saar, a former rival of Netanyahu within Likud, stands to partly benefit from the collapse of Blue and White with his nascent New Hope party expected to receive 18 seats. Mr Saar was previously unsuccessful in 2019 at challenging Netanyahu in an internal Likud leadership election. Saar is believed to appeal to conservative voters who have stopped supporting over his trial for alleged corruption which he denies and perceived mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Announcing the formation of the New Hope party, Saar referred to Likud members having a “personality cult” around Netanyahu, and criticised him for failing to deliver on promised national unity and stability.
Naftali Bennet, of the right-wing Yamina bloc, is also expected to be a benefactor of the shifting political sands – potentially increasing its number of seats from 6 to 14. Reports today, however, indicate that this joint-ticket is also expected to splinter as the leaders of the factions that form Yamina have increasingly disagreed over the direction of the party – with an internal policy struggle over moving towards more secular issues or focusing more on religious Zionist voters. The polls suggest that were Bennet to remove his New Right party from Yamina and run independent of the more religious National Union then he could increase his mandate to 16 seats. In this scenario it is likely National Union would fail to meet the electoral threshold.
Benny Gantz’s former running mate, Yair Lapid, is expected to receive 13 seats for his centrist Yesh Atid party which is standing independently this time around.
An additional new dynamic for the 2021 election is the emergence of a new party led by popular Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai – The Israelis. Launched with much fanfare a few weeks ago, the early predications are that the leftist party could receive a mere 6 seats.
Current polling indicates the Arab Joint List bloc could fall from a record 15-seats at the last election to 10 this time. Israeli commentators have speculated that an increased number of Arab Israelis may be considering voting for the party of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following Israel’s signing of the Abraham Accord peace deals with their Arab neighbours. The Prime Minister has made several high-profile visits to Arab Israeli towns in recent weeks. The increased vote share of the Joint List in recent elections has been a major factor in the inability to form functioning governing coalitions.
Speaking in the Arab Israeli city of Umm al-Fahm to encourage the local Arab community to receive the Covid-19 vaccination, he said that “Arab citizens can see the great things we’ve done. We’ve brought four historic peace agreements with Arab nations that have changed the face of the Middle East and Israeli society. Arabs and Jews are embracing in Dubai and will embrace here too”.
The latest polls suggest that the Labor party – standing independently this election – will fail to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold.
Far-right party Habayit Hayehud, led by Rafi Peretz, is also not expected to meet the threshold with its leader announcing earlier this week his departure from politics. Reports indicate the party could seek to join with Naftali Bennet’s New Right party should the odds-on favourite new leader Nir Orbach be confirmed.
Israel’s Knesset dissolved late-December over the failure to pass a new budget. Netanyahu and Gantz formed a “unity” government in May 2020 after three inconclusive elections since April 2019.
