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Israelis will go to the polls on Tuesday 1st November to vote for the make-up of the next Knesset and Israeli government – the fifth round of elections in under four years. The election comes following the breakdown of the unprecedented “change government” led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in June 2022, with Yair Lapid becoming interim Prime Minister until a new government is formed after Tuesday’s vote.
An alliance of right-wing and religious parties is now attempting to return to power under the leadership of Likud leader, Benjamin Netanyahu. The election is again shaping up to be a referendum on Israel’s longest-serving former Prime Minister, who is seeking to win his sixth term in office.
Likud remains Israel’s largest party but has fallen short in recent years of achieving a majority in the Knesset. Polls indicate the party is again set to be the largest party and perhaps best placed to attempt to form a coalition, but there remain divisions within the right of Israeli politics owing to the divisiveness of Mr Netanyahu which means his anticipated coalition could fall a few mandates short again of the 61 seats required.
A number of unknowable factors are also likely to play a big role in the final allocation of Knesset seats, including the size of voter turnout within Israel’s Arab community, which many commentators expect to be lower than recent elections. Interim Prime Minister Yair Lapid, leader of centrist Yesh Atid, is not seen as having a clear route to gathering a majority coalition so in the event of another stalemate he will remain as Prime Minister until the outcome of a historic sixth election, possibly in May 2023.
Defense Minister Benny Gantz has sought to present himself as a third, compromise option for Prime Minister, but several key potential coalition partners have said they will not join alongside his centrist National Unity party, including Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu and the two Orthodox Jewish parties. Follow CFI on Twitter for all the latest election news next week.
