So close yet so far…
With a global pandemic dominating the news cycles, it would be easy to forget that Israel is still in the midst of political chaos, with the looming prospect of a fourth national election.
Israel’s effective response to the pandemic has garnered international praise and the country has been placed at top spot in the Covid-19 Health Safety Ranking. But things are far from harmonious in government.
48 hours to go
Last night (Monday) at midnight, the 28-day period to form a coalition came to a close. In a move made under extreme circumstances, President Reuven Rivlin gifted Benny Gantz and Benjamin Netanyahu an additional 48 hours to complete negotiations.
The clock is counting down until midnight on Wednesday to see if Gantz and Netanyahu can come together and finalise a coalition agreement. With tonight and tomorrow being the last night of the Passover festival in Israel their time is even more hampered.
If a deal isn’t brokered, President Rivlin has assured the nation that the mandate will not be passed over to Netanyahu but to the Knesset. This will allow all MKs 21 days to form a coalition of 61 MKs and present themselves to the President.
In these unpredictable times it would be impossible to speculate what might occur. All we can know for sure is that if these 21 days are unsuccessful, the polling booths will be re-erected, and fourth elections will be coming our way.
The story so far
On Monday 2nd March, Israelis went to the polls for the third time in less than 12 months. Political campaigning was meagre compared to that of former elections and there was a distinct cloud of apathy in the air. Despite this, the nation went out to the polling stations in droves and the voter turnout was 71.47%, up by 2% from April 2019 and 3% from September 2019.
As the results rolled in late that Monday night, it seemed that Likud’s Netanyahu had defied his opponents and managed to clinch the greatest number of seats. With the votes counted, recounted and checked again the final numbers came out as follows; Likud (Netanyahu) 36, Blue and White (Gantz) 33, Joint List (Arab) 15, Shas (Ultra-Orthodox) 9, United Torah Judaism (Ultra-Orthodox) 7, Labor-Meretz-Gesher (Peretz) 7, Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) 7, Yamina (Bennet) 6.
The right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu was now comprised of 58 seats and the left-wing block unofficially led by Gantz received 40 seats. At this juncture, neither the Joint List (Arab) or Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu had declared allegiance to either bloc.
The race to garner the support of 61 MKs and be handed the mandate had officially begun. Netanyahu’s game plan was to pressure Gantz into joining him in a unity government. With only 3 additional seats needed, the media reported on phone calls behind closed doors, rogue meetings with MKs from parties who might defect and suggestive legislative concessions.
Gantz toyed with the idea of seeking backing for a minority government with the Arab Joint List supporting from outside the coalition, ultimately sending fireworks through the left-wing bloc.
On the day where President Rivlin met with each party to discuss their recommendations for Prime Minister, the nation began to realise the severity of the Covid-19 pandemic and Israel entered into its first days of quarantine. In response, many parties came together in calling for the formation of a time-bound Emergency Government, never seen before in Israel’s history. Gantz agreed to the formation, on the condition that all 8 elected parties were included in the government, including the Joint List.
At the conclusion of President Rivlin’s meetings it became clear that Yisrael Beiteinu and uncharacteristically, the Joint List, had both recommended Gantz be handed the mandate to form a government. With no legislation regarding the formation of an Emergency Government, President Rivlin dismissed the idea and tasked Gantz with forming a government. With 28 days to do so, the mandate arrived with a stern warning from the President that time was of the essence and time wasting would not be tolerated.
Coalition building… third time lucky?
On the 16th March the timer was set for 28 days as Benny Gantz tried his hand at building a coalition for a second time this year. The 23rd Knesset was declared open and the 120 MKs were sworn in under rather untraditional circumstances. Sticking to the Ministry of Health’s guidelines, MKs were sworn in in groups of 3, standing the required 2 metres apart and having their temperatures taken on arrival.
Media leaks abound, it seemed that in the first few days of negotiations Gantz’s camp began to weaken and reports of his willingness to sit under Netanyahu in a rotation government were quickly denied. As quick as Blue and White could pour water on these claims, Netanyahu stood on his nightly podium updating the country on the pandemic and calling Gantz to join him setting the rumour mill ablaze again.
A key roadblock and turning point in the negotiations centred around the Speaker of the Knesset Yuli Edelstein (Likud). Upon all MKs being sworn into the Knesset, the first vote according to legislation would be to elect a new Speaker. Uncharacteristically, Edelstein refused to open the Knesset thereby preventing the vote from taking place potentially removing him from his position. When the outraged nation questioned on his move, he justified his position by claiming that removal from his post would be a nail in the coffin for the formation of a Unity Government.
Blue and White referred the case to the High Court. Whilst waiting for the judicial ruling, hundreds of Israelis took to their cars (as not to break Ministry of Health rules) and staged protests on the motorways across the country and ending outside the Knesset. The High Court ruled that the vote needed to be held with almost immediate effect. Citing judicial overreach, Edelstein staged his own demonstration and resigned as Speaker of the Knesset.
Blue and White were rumoured to be submitting Meir Cohen MK as their candidate for Speaker of the Knesset, with an air of confidence it was almost certain he would be voted in allowing Blue and White to take control of the Knesset schedule. In a bizarre turn of events, Gantz made the last-minute decision to remove Cohen’s candidacy and submit himself as Blue and White’s candidate for Speaker of the Knesset.
It emerged that Gantz had tentatively agreed a unity government with Netanyahu. If Meir Cohen had been elected speaker, the unity government would have been dead. Before the nation’s eyes, in an unfounded turn of events this one move saw the collapse of Netanyahu’s greatest rivals, the Blue and White Party.
Originally made up of three parties, Blue and White were officially dissolved back into Gantz’s Hosen L’Yisrael (15 MKs), Lapid’s Yesh Atid and Ya’alons Telem (16 MKs). On the back of this, MK’s Yoaz Hendel and Zvi Hauser who were originally part of Telem, have formed a new party called Derech Eretz (2MK’s) and will be joining the prospective Netanyahu-Gantz coalition.
In a strange turn of events, once Netanyahu and Gantz announced their intent to form a collation, parties from across the board including the left bloc sought to join. Labor’s Amir Peretz and Itzik Shmuli jumped ship followed by Gesher’s Levy Abekasis. In a snub to Israel’s left-wing voters, these MKs have gone against their entire election campaign promises by joining Netanyahu.
If the deal is brokered successfully the government will be formed of 78 MKs as follows – right bloc 58, Gantz 15, Derech Eretz 2, Gesher 1, Labour 2. The opposition would be 42 MK’s lead by Yair Lapid and made up of Yesh Atid, Telem, Meretz, the Joint List and Yisrael Beitenu.
As it stands the rotation would see Netanyahu as Prime Minister for the first 18 months with Gantz as Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. Gantz would then take top spot whilst it’s unclear what position Netanyahu will hold due to his impending legal proceedings. Many Blue and White supporters are distraught at what has become of Gantz and the party they voted for. The party formed with a mission to oust Netanyahu has conceded to the enemy and allowed him to continue his reign.
As Gantz addressed the nation, he cited the need for national unity in light of the pandemic and the detrimental effect that fourth elections would have on the country.
As the dust began to settle, Netanyahu and Gantz were still squabbling over who would take control of the judicial system and whether annexation of certain parts of the West Bank should be permitted as per the US Peace Plan. Unable to rectify these two issues and without wanting to detonate chances of a unity government Gantz sought a two-week extension from President Rivlin, which was immediately denied.
Last night at midnight, the 28-day period to form a coalition came to a close. In a move made under extreme circumstances, President Reuven Rivlin gifted Benny Gantz and Benjamin Netanyahu an additional 48 hours to complete negotiations.
