As Israel’s general election campaign reaches its final stretch this week before voting on Tuesday 9th April, the stakes could not be higher.
A poll of polls published on 30th March shows that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s principal challenger, centrist Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, is slightly ahead with 31 projected Knesset seats to Netanyahu’s 29. Some of the very latest polls however have started to show Netanyahu’s Likud having a narrow edge.
The poll average shows the Labor party on a projected 10 seats, and Hadash-Taal (Arab) on 8. United Torah Judaism (ultra-Orthodox) and the United Right List are both projected to win 7 Knesset seats, followed by the New Right, Shas (ultra-Orthdox) and Zehut (right) on 6. Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party is projected to win 4 seats.
Over the past weeks, several parties – including Gesher (centrist), Balad-Raam (Arab), Zehut (libertarian/right), Kulanu (centrist) Yisrael Beitenu (right) – have polled on either side of the threshold while other parties such as Shas (ultra-Orthodox) and Meretz (left) are close to it.
Given the tightness of the polls, many speculate how the new Blue and White alliance could form a working majority to form a government. No party in Israeli history has ever achieved a majority on its own, so the Knesset election is followed by two phases to determine the next Israeli Prime Minister and form a coalition government.
The Blue and White alliance is jointly led by former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, and has brought in two other respected and well-known former IDF Generals Moshe Yaalon and Gabi Ashkenazi. Gantz and Lapid have promised the party “will ensure the country’s security, and will reunite the parts of the people and heal the divided Israeli society”. A coalition government led by the Blue and White party would see Gantz and Lapid share the premiership with rotating two-year terms.
Smaller factions have long acted as the kingmakers in forming a coalition for the next government of Israel, and it is no different now. According to sources in the Blue and White party, Gantz plans to propose a coalition government with Moshe Kahlon’s centre-right Kulanu party, Moshe Feiglin’s right-wing libertarian Zehut party, and the ultra-Orthodox parties if he beats Netanyahu’s Likud by at least four seats in Tuesday’s election. The ultra-Orthodox parties had previously ruled out entering a coalition with Blue and White, as co-leader Yair Lapid’s has drawn the ire of ultra-Orthodox politicians by advocating for the end of exemption for the ultra-Orthodox from Israel’s compulsory military service and for the teaching of core curriculum subjects in religious schools. Aryeh Deri, leader of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Shas party, said this week that Gantz partnership with Lapid was a “mistake”, adding “we cannot recommend his beliefs or sit down with him”.
Mr Netanyahu looks better placed to form a governing coalition, which would include partners from his current government. The bloc of right-wing and religious parties that will likely support Netanyahu include The New Right, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and United Right List. The formation of the United Right List was met by significant controversy in Israel as it includes Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power), which is led by former National Union MK Michael Ben Ari and far right activists Itamar Ben Gvir, Baruch Marzel and Benti Gopstein. They are followers of Rabbi Meir Kahane, who was a Knesset member from 1984-88 before his Kach Party was declared an illegal terrorist organisation by Israel, the US and other Western countries.
While Netanyahu’s central appeal to his voters is his record as a ‘safe pair of hands’ on security issues, his strategy towards recent-cross border tensions and rocket attacks last month may be his Achilles heel. Gantz claimed that the recent escalation in violence showed that Netanyahu had sacrificed the country’s “deterrence” against Hamas, stating “the reality in which Hamas has turned Israel into its hostage is unprecedented and unbelievable”. A majority of the public (66.5%) believes that Israel has acted too moderately in dealing with the latest clashes on the Gaza border, according to an election survey published by the Israel Democracy Institute. However, around two-thirds of Israelis (62%) think that the U.S. recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights contributes to Israel’s vital interests, with 66% also believing that the announcement boosts Netanyahu’s standing in the election campaign.
Among the Israeli-Arab population, it is indicated that turnout in the election could dip below 50% – a 19% drop from the 2015 election figure – due to disillusionment. In numerical terms, Israeli-Arabs make up roughly 17% of the electorate, equivalent to 20 seats in the Knesset. Analysts say that if turnout is high amongst the community, Gantz’s presumed bloc will benefit, while lower turnout will strengthen Netanyahu’s position.
It appears that the Attorney General’s announcement in February of his intention to indict Netanyahu on charges of corruption and bribery has not had a significant effect on the Israeli Prime Minister’s election prospects. A Channel 12 poll published on 1st April asking 552 people ‘Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?’ showed Netanyahu on 53%, Gantz on 30%, and 17% responding ‘Don’t Know’. If Mr Netanyahu wins the election, he will start his fourth consecutive term in office and become Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, surpassing David Ben Gurion.
There has been speculation recently that Blue and White and Likud could form a grand coalition led by Netanyahu, but this was ruled out by Gantz this week. Upon Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit’s indiction announcement, Benny Gantz publicly promised that he would not join a government led by Netanyahu. However, taped conversations published on Sunday revealed Gantz privately said he would be prepared to serve in a government led by Netanyahu. This has been the third time in the past month that private tapes were revealed of Gantz and in March, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Iranian intelligence had managed to gain access to Gantz’s phone and all its contents. It was reported that no sensitive security information had been housed on the phone at the time of the breach, but it has been seen as an embarrassment.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has attacked his Blue and White rivals as “left-wing”, and stated that the choice for Israel’s population is “either a strong right-wing government under my leadership or a weak left-wing government”. Mr Netanyahu alleged that the legal investigations against him are a “witch hunt” involving the left, the media and the police relentlessly pressuring a “weak” Attorney General.
Moshe Feiglin’s right-wing libertarian Zehut party has emerged as the wild card of the election campaign and is currently predicted to win four seats or more. A senior Zehut source said that the leader has been contacted by Likud and the Blue and White party about entering into coalition with them after the elections.
Who are Israelis voting for?
Likud (“The United”) – Headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud stands for national and economic liberalism and has been the traditional home of the mainstream right-wing since the 1970s when it was founded by Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon.
Blue and White – Key election contenders former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid announced in February 2019 that they were joining forces under a new centrist ticket named Blue and White. The centrist alliance has emerged as the principle challenger to Mr Netanyahu’s Likud. If they form the next government, they have agreed that Mr Gantz would be Prime Minister for two and a half years, with Mr Lapid becoming Prime Minister after that.
Ha’Avoda (Israeli Labor Party) – The main party on the left. It is currently run by Avi Gabbay. The party traditionally supports pragmatic foreign affairs policies, and social democratic economic policies, and is widely expected to lose a number of seats – possibly even half its current MKs.
The New Right – A newly created right-wing party that branched off from Jewish Home. This new party is headed by Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett and is aimed at both religious and secular Jews.
Yisrael Beiteinu (“Israel is our Home”) – Led by former Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman, the right-wing nationalist party traditionally held a base for secular, Russian-speaking Israelis.
Kulanu (“All of Us”) – Led by Moshe Kahlon, the centrist party focuses on economic and cost-of-living issues.
Ta’al-Hadash – Ta’al-Hadash is a joint electoral list of two parties: Ta’al (Arab Renewal) and Hadash (Jewish/Arab Communist). The two were part of the four-strong Arab alliance, ‘The Joint List’ which competed in the 2015 elections but disbanded before the 2019 elections. Just before the deadline for submitting the lists, Hadash (headed by Ayman Odeh) and Ta’al (headed by Ahmad Tibi) agreed to run together.
Ra’am-Balad – Ra’am-Balad is a joint electoral list of two Arab parties: Ra’am (Islamist) and Balad (Arab-Palestinian nationalist), led by Mansour Abbas. The two were part of The Joint List in the 2015 Knesset. Just before the deadline for submitting the lists, Ra’am and Balad agreed to run together, mainly in order to minimise the risk of failing to pass the electoral threshold.
Meretz (“Vigour”) – A left-wing party led by Tamar Zandberg, emphasising social justice, human rights, religious freedom, and environmentalism.
United Right List – A union of pro-settler and far-right parties Jewish Home, Tkuma, and Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power). The widely criticised union was created after Mr Netanyahu guaranteed it two cabinet positions if he becomes Prime Minister again. Established in 2012, Otzma Yehudit is led by former National Union MK Michael Ben Ari and far right activists Itamar Ben Gvir, Baruch Marzel and Benti Gopstein. They are followers of Rabbi Meir Kahane, who was a Knesset member from 1984-88 before his Kach Party was declared an illegal terrorist organisation by Israel, the US and other Western countries.
Shas – An ultra-Orthodox party which primarily represents the interests of ultra-Orthodox Sephardic Jews and is currently led by Aryeh Deri.
United Torah Judaism – An alliance of Degel HaTorah and Agudat Israel, two small Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox parties. The two parties have not always agreed with each other about policy matters. However, they have cooperated in order to win the maximum number of seats in the Knesset and have agreed to do so again in this year’s elections.
Gesher (“Bridge”) – A centrist party led by former Yisrael Beitenu MK Orly Levy-Abekasis, focusing on social welfare issues.
Zehut (“Identity”) – Led by Moshe Feiglin, Zehut is right-wing on security and diplomatic issues, but socially libertarian. It supports the separation of religion and state and the legalisation of cannabis.
The voting system:
Israelis will be voting for a party – and not a Prime Minister – in an electoral system based on nation-wide proportional representation. This means that the number of seats which every list receives in the Knesset is proportional to the number of voters who voted for it.
According to this system, the voters vote for a party list, and not for a particular person on the list. The electoral threshold is currently set at 3.25%, meaning that a party needs to win at least 3.25% of all votes (which translates to four Knesset seats) in order to secure parliamentary representation. This threshold is the reason that some smaller parties may join up with other factions, in a bid to give themselves a better chance of passing the electoral threshold.
After the votes are counted work begins to assemble a coalition (which needs at least 61 of the 120 Members of Knesset in order to function). The leader of the coalition will then be recommended as Prime Minister.
The voting day is a national holiday in Israel with most places of work closed for the day. Voter turnout is one of the highest in the world, with 71% of the voting population turning up to vote during the last elections in 2015.
